Master Debate #4: Simplify And Add Power or More Lightness

"Lets Just Drive" (lets-just-drive) 09/12/2013 at 15:36 • Filed to: MASTER DEBATE

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One wonders, "How much longer can the Horsepower Wars rage?"

Is the key to economy lightness? Is the best way to save on gas just to make the cars we drive lighter?

In a world where performance and miles-per-gallon run hand in hand and in a market where consumers demand at least one of those; mpg or 0-60, and often both, car makers will have to explore an ever expanding horizon of cutting edge materials alongside new and innovative engine technology.

But what will this mean for us, the enthusiasts?

Will our vehicles continue to get ever heavier and ever safer while the engines that power them add more and more power at the cost of less fuel burned or will we reach a plateau upon which automotive manufacture will have to begin reducing safety features, reducing power and fundamentally, reducing weight?

We've all seen it, in movies and on TV - a vision of the future... with cars. They're either big, bloated, self-driven machines more living rooms on wheels then automobiles or tiny, ultra-light buggies. Though educated persons will often say that the truth tends to lie between the extremes, it presents an interesting question for the direction of our motoring future.

May we see a return to super light sports cars alongside an overall weight loss strategy adopted by the builders and the makers? Or, perhaps more likely, will the Horsepower Wars continue to rage in earnest cursing us with that most unwanted byproduct - bloat?

Personally, I think we're on the verge. Personally, I think the Horsepower Wars will run out of steam in the near future. There is no doubt in my mind that light weight materials will become increasingly common in all vehicles and that cleaner burning engines will continue to be the way forward. It is my sincere hope that we can see and end to bloat, but I know not by which resolution it may come because, as populations increase and road use goes up, we will ever want for the safety that comes from knowing you're driving in a titanium safe room. Frankfurt has shown us that lighter weight materials will play a role, but sadly, it has also shown us that adding bloat and the power to accommodate it isn't really going away.

I don't think that we can continue as we're going now. I think that the equation is self defeating, that the two schools of engine and material development do not run parallel to one another and will eventually reach their maximum. I personally think that a paradigm shift is in the works and believe, or hope, that it will be one which relies more on offering the public lighter vehicles with fewer luxuries - smaller engines powering lighter cars.

The argument can be made that what the future truly has in store, however; are thousand horsepower family sedans that weigh as much as a small moon powered by ultra-high mpg hybrid motors and are probably driven by computers.

What do you think, Opponauts?

TheLOUDMUSIC- Put it in H! > Lets Just Drive 09/12/2013 at 15:58

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I think, that except in the supercar territories, that horsepower wont ever increase very much. Cars like the Corolla have actually had decreases in the past years in the quest for MPGs. And more than 300hp in your average family sedan is already a bit much for the cars suspension and drivetrain. As for supercars, the HP wars will never end.

BiTurbo228 - Dr Frankenstein of Spitfires > Lets Just Drive 09/12/2013 at 16:00

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I think that the future of everyday transportation lies with the electric car, or some other alternative fuel vehicle (providing someone doesn't come up with a viable way to synthesise a fuel source).

Those that can adapt, will survive. Those that can't, will wither away. I think that the new breed of electric vehicles will enter into a similar power-race as their petrol powered forebears, favouring added power to offset added weight and complexity.

Then, you'll get your petrol-powered throwbacks. Like Morgan and Caterham of today, you'll get people building petrol-powered dinosaurs that cavort around the more ponderous pedestrian transport around them. These will tend towards the Chapman philosophy, especially if the safety regulations around petrol powered vehicles relaxes (due to them becoming low-volume toys).

Aww hell, I'll just keep driving my classics. I doubt they'll change much.

Joe_Limon > Lets Just Drive 09/12/2013 at 16:01

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I think your view is rather simple. Yes, weight can help fuel economy, but when you compare relative power/economy/weight between the American Pony cars and the Toyobaru twins you start to scratch your chin. There is a LOT more going on then most people give credit for.

I don't see an end to the power wars. This is an efficiency war we are in, who can make the most power/performance from the least amount of fuel. Sure there will be a plethora of under powered vehicles in our future (heck they are in our past as well). But to predict an end to power? No, that's silly, people will always pay a premium for that, even if it's buying super capacitors instead of super chargers.

Joe_Limon > BiTurbo228 - Dr Frankenstein of Spitfires 09/12/2013 at 16:05

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I really am crossing my fingers for algael fuels. This is the best solution, carbon neutral, allows our classics to keep running, we don't need a whole new infrastructure to be built up, and finally, we won't end up running out of strip mined rare earth materials.

BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. > Lets Just Drive 09/12/2013 at 16:15

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I think the future needs to change direction, and stop moving up-market.

Cars are getting more expensive faster than people are making more money to afford them.

Lots of power and lots of tech, or light weight high-tech materials, and all that... is sort of pointless, if sales drop off, because you are chasing fewer and fewer buyers who can afford to buy.

I think AFFORDABLE performance is going to be the name of the game, if the attention of the auto manufacturers ever gets turned.

But that is lower-margin, and harder to do... especially with bureaucratic encroachment of new safety and efficiency regulations every year that force cost cutting or price increases to meet them.

5-7 years ago, I could afford a 20-30K new car.

My buying power has been reduced by stagnant wages, and increases in cost of living so much in that time, I am not so sure I could really comfortably afford a 15-20K used car, and keep my loan term less than 4 years, and I have a paid-off mortgage, and no credit card balances.

Cash just doesn't go as far as it used to... and working stiffs, even white-collar college educated ones, can't afford what they used to be able to.

BiTurbo228 - Dr Frankenstein of Spitfires > Joe_Limon 09/12/2013 at 16:17

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This would be great.

I've seen a little work being done using solar furnaces, but that seems a little further from a useful reality than bioengineered fuels.

Joe_Limon > BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. 09/12/2013 at 16:24

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Could you imagine how awesome the market would be if safety standards and emissions regulations didn't keep improving every year? We would get light weight, and power, and cheap!

OtherBarry > Lets Just Drive 09/12/2013 at 16:25

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Engineers will never figure out that we dont need or want all the shit they pile onto cars. Its job security for them. Thats why we won't get lighter cars because they don't get that i basically want a 1990 honda CRX will a modern DI turbo engine. I'm thinking keep it around a ton and with that kind of engine you should be able to do around 70 mpg. Fast, light, handles, what is not to love. Weight spoils everything and car makers would do well to remember that. HP war is done in the trenches, no one wants to feed all those horses. The Corvette will get 900 hp from the factory soon and the rest of us will pine for them and never own one...

Lets Just Drive > Joe_Limon 09/12/2013 at 16:29

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Fair points. If I might, the view was intended to be simple - simply to provoke the discussion.

I agree, we are in an efficiency war. This is important to all aspects of the market, but is of particular importance to the general public and is, perhaps, of less concern to the enthusiast market and of very little importance to the top end buyer (say, half a million bucks or more) and I suppose, in the vagueness of my original post, I failed to address the importance of those different markets.

Your reference to the modern "muscle" cars verusus the Subiyota Twins, while valid, is perhaps less important given that you're talking about a single car (or three iterations of same) versus a whole market with multiple cars. If there were more cars sharing the same design ideology of the twins, I'd agree. However, even in their own markets the twins are fairly unique outside of the MX5. Does that make sense?

And of course, there will always be customers shopping for the top of the marque, spending more money on a single item then many of us will make in our lifetimes, but their market contribution is very isolated.

Lets Just Drive > BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. 09/12/2013 at 16:31

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I am about to head out and lack the time to reply at length, at the moment. That said, I really, really enjoyed this perspective as I completely failed to address it. You're absolutely right about the trend to move up market, even counting for inflation.

I will get back to you as soon as I can.

Brilliant!

BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. > Joe_Limon 09/12/2013 at 16:31

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Especially considering that most regulatory measures have turned the corner from being actually beneficial, to mostly being micromanagement with little change in effect

I have long thought that extra safety beyond a reasonable base standard, economy, and other things, should be optional selling points, not unfunded mandates by the government, instead funded by increased costs of the product, both for the safety measures themselves, and for the increased costs of testing them by the NHTSA/DOT.

Joe_Limon > BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. 09/12/2013 at 16:36

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I agree entirely, our automotive industry is far too communist.

MtrRider Just Wants Doritos > Lets Just Drive 09/12/2013 at 16:37

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Cars will not get any lighter in the near future. The horsepower wars will not end, but you will see more hybrids and electrics, a change I welcome. Cars will start getting lighter once high tech materials, such as carbon fiber and carbon nanotubes start coming down in price.

BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. > Joe_Limon 09/12/2013 at 17:52

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The automotive industry is looking for the easiest way to save or make a buck. They spend more on healthcare for their workers than R&D, in some cases, anyway.

And the operative word being easiest, not necessarily best. Building carbon copies of the same CUVs that everyone else builds, due to perceived popularity, and CAFE's lower light truck standards, is one way... not building niche vehicles that don't sell as well, and don't have as high of margins is harder.

Trying to figure out how to offer the biggest bang per dollar, at an affordable price, when the profit margin might be slim... or the product might fail if it isn't right, or if the public doesn't bite... is hard. and therefore rare.

the government is regulating the hell out of them, and everyone else, telling them how to run their businesses, either externally, or in GM's case, internally for a while. That is the socialist bit.

The illusion of private enterprise, with government control over the means and effects of production, via regulation and law.

Communistic politico-economics would dispense with the illusion of private property, intellectual property, and ownership over the means of production, and the state would officially control it from the top down, in the name of the state, and under the false-flag of 'the people' when the people have little power, input, or choice.

Socialist politico-economics, and Communist politico-economics, and political fascism/totalitarianism by king, monarch, or dictator, are barely shades different, almost totally by whether they allow people the illusion that they have ownership of their property, or input in governance.

It all leads to the same effects of control, and lack of liberty for the actual folks on the ground.

Capitalism is supposed to be the opposite, with true economic liberty and personal responsibility, but when it devolves into cronyism and corruption, it quickly swings to emulate those other rule-by-elitism systems that disenfranchise normal people. People vilify Capitalism, but they don't know actual capitalism... it has been Cronyism of an increasing degree, for more than 100 years. Lobbyists swaying government to make political laws to affect economics in the favor of the people paying lobbyists to sway government. That isn't economic liberty, and does more represent a collusion that more resembles socialism.

Lets Just Drive > MtrRider Just Wants Doritos 09/12/2013 at 18:56

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Isn't there a worry then, by your logic, that those same weight savings found in lighter materials will be taken up by further safety measures? Thus; any savings gained will be lost in the name of additional safety standards. Look at ESC systems, once an option and now mandatory. The more room you find, the more stuff you cram in if, and this is important, your primary focus is on profits and not the product itself.

Lets Just Drive > TheLOUDMUSIC- Put it in H! 09/12/2013 at 19:07

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Not just supercars, I'd argue, but any car which claims a sporting or performance based heritage. From Genesis to BRZ (see what I did there?) and indeed a wide variety of semi-sporting cars targeted at the family man who isn't ready to give up his testes, the horsepower equals sales and while that has to be held in tandem with MPG, these customers are less concerned with overall fuel mileage (assuming it's up to the class standard) and more concerned with how many HP they can brag about which tends to support the idea that the Horsepower Wars won't end, or even slow.

In the beige demographic, the MPG number tends to be more important then horsepower and the cars in that demographic tend not to be concerned with performance numbers outside of economy.

It's important to remember that the largest buying force isn't the supercar or even the sports-car market, it's the beigemobile-wanting crowd and, overwhelmingly, their primary focus is on that MPG. For them, as manufacturers chase sales, I tend to think any weight saved by lighter materials will be used up adding safety features and that even those gains will take some time to be seen as this isn't a demographic that demands carbonfiber tubs and magnesium components.

Really, my interest is in the sports-car demo and how this debate applies to enthusiast cars. And that's where I tend to think the question of Lightness versus Power is more relevant; in the sub $100,000.00 sports car market (give or take).

Lets Just Drive > OtherBarry 09/12/2013 at 19:17

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I think maybe that is an oversimplification of a more complex issue, but I do get what you're saying. I'd just add that engineers and designers work within a very confined medium unless they're in the concept game and they respond to many and more complex factors then what "... we dont need or want...". I think, personally, you have to approach this conversation from a more refined point of view, that is; how the Power Versus Lightness debate applies to each demographic and targeted sales market. For instance, the sports-car market is something of a niche and is more capable of incorporating what "we" want given we demonstrate our purchasing ambitions by buying the product which most reflects what we want. Whereas the non-enthusiast market is responding to different factors, or responding to the same factors differently, I'm really more interested in how the debate applies to the future of sports-cars, or enthusiast cars.

Look at the FR-S. Look at the MX5. Look at the S2K. It happens, and it's really on us to buy their products if we want those products to continue to be developed and offered. It's like voting; you have to play to play, otherwise you're just a loudmouth.

MtrRider Just Wants Doritos > Lets Just Drive 09/12/2013 at 19:27

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Yes, that is what I think. You can look at the use of aluminum in new cars, but they aren't that much lighter than their predecessors if they are lighter at all.

Lets Just Drive > BiTurbo228 - Dr Frankenstein of Spitfires 09/12/2013 at 19:33

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As grim as I find your forecast of the future, I can't say I disagree. How far off that shift is and how gradual the change will be is, of course, uncertain but I'd add to your prediction a predilection toward puerile pedestrianism - a future where, not only are the boxes boring but also self driven.

It's really just an extrapolation of the model being utilized now where only extreme niche cars like the Atom, Caterhams and the ilk will be the only vehicles to get away with a reduction of safety bloat and so forth but I think your example is a bit extreme given the fact that this extreme niche market is protected by its customer base while the larger and more generalized "sports car" market is still fairly strong.

It's the more immediate future, however, with which I am concerned, and the application of weight/power mandates as they apply to enthusiast cars of that more generalized sports car demographic and not niche or supercar markets as much.

There, I tend to think that manufacturers will continue along current lines; adding lightness where the budget allows (in terms of the cost of light weight materials) and adding power where the market demands. Unless that savings is consumed by adding more luxury items and safety measures, however, it has a finite amount of room.

Lets Just Drive > MtrRider Just Wants Doritos 09/12/2013 at 19:35

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Great point. The more weight we save, the more safety and luxury items we cram into our cars. Logical, right? Except, what if we didn't? What if the design ideology behind the BRZ were more popular? Imagine; most people say that the BRZ needs more power but what if, instead, it could lose an additional 300 pounds?

Lets Just Drive > BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. 09/12/2013 at 19:56

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The up-market trend is pervasive and part of the parcel that is modern perception as it relates to consumerism. We readily accept that the new version of a thing is going to cost more then the old version, failing to recognize the difference between a replacement and a new product. No where is this better exemplified then in the smart or cell phone market. The new iPhone comes out and of course it's more expensive then the old one, even accounting for inflation, because it's new, it's better. It does more. What we fail to realize is that all we're doing is establishing a new, more expensive standard rather then maintaining a baseline throughout the evolution of a product. The same is true of automobiles and we readily accept it as the norm but what we tend to overlook or fail to include the evolution of that technology and instead accept that a new product will drive down the price of the old product, which is pretty odd when you think about it. And I'm not talking pre-owned, either, I'm talking about brand new cars - the new model year is more expensive then the last rather then maintaining a base average... it is the new model year which makes the old model year more affordable. It makes me wonder if maybe the very root of consumer behavior is to blame and if it extends far beyond the automotive market to virtually all consumer products.

MtrRider Just Wants Doritos > Lets Just Drive 09/12/2013 at 21:01

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Look at the new Corvette. It weighs 90 lbs more than the old one, and most of the weight gain is from fuel economy technology and chassis reinforcements.

Lets Just Drive > MtrRider Just Wants Doritos 09/12/2013 at 21:48

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It makes you wonder, like I said, don't it?

MtrRider Just Wants Doritos > Lets Just Drive 09/12/2013 at 22:12

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It makes me wonder. Would people accept a 1 star safety rating if it made the car better in every other way? Could they accept not having power seats, which they will use exactly once?

Lets Just Drive > MtrRider Just Wants Doritos 09/12/2013 at 22:16

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Yes...

... after the bombs drop, or the plague runs rampant, or the animal wars...